Covid Stimulus Program Comes To $17 million per life saved…..

COST PER LIFE SAVED

• The $3.3 Trillion Federal stimulus spending equates to $3 – $31M per live saved.  See assumptions below. 

• This analysis uses the most recently published fatality estimates by the CDC, adjusted for asymptomatic cases (they estimate 40% of cases are asymptomatic).  Asymptomatic cases = infected but no symptoms (immune systems fights off quickly enough before developing symptoms).  Below are the estimated fatality rates compared to the flu. 

• First, we breakdown the age distribution in the US and apply these death rates at varying infection rates, ranging from 50% to 100%.  Notably, the commonly quoted threshold for herd immunity is 70%.  That said, a scenario in which 100% of the population would have been infected with COVID, with no lockdowns/restrictions/etc., before the vaccine was available, would have been highly unlikely.
• Next, we sum the deaths per age group and compare it to the total COVID deaths to date.  This variance is what we’ll refer to as the number of “lives saved.”  This is conservative estimate, because the total number of deaths is going to end up much higher than where it currently sits. 
• Finally, we consider the cost per “life saved”, based on the $3.3T federal government spending.  We provide ranges, showing the cost per life saved assuming lockdowns/restrictions accounted for anywhere from 25 – 100% of “lives saved.”  It is worth noting that 74% of cases in NYC have been traced to household spread, which lockdowns/restrictions have a minimal effect on (families still gather for holidays/birthdays/etc., if you can’t watch the game at the bar you watch it at your house with friends, etc., regardless of limits on private in home gatherings).  The cost per life comes out to a range of $3 – 31M, and is still conservative considering it doesn’t account for state/local government spending, lost tax revenue, and total COVID deaths will end up much higher when all said and done (therefore “lives saved” will be lower).